Half of prospective long-haul travellers plan an overseas trip between September and December, down from 55% a year ago, according to the latest Long-Haul Travel Barometer from the European Travel Commission and Interrail. For the millions of people whose holidays, family visits and travel budgets depend on how accessible Europe remains, the report offers a concrete measure of what this autumn holds.
Intention to visit Europe has slipped in parallel, from 38% to 34%. Because both figures declined at a similar rate, Europe still accounts for roughly two-thirds of overall long-haul travel intention. This edition of the Barometer relies on a new data collection panel, but long-term trends were reviewed across all markets and are consistent with previous waves.
The picture varies considerably by country. Interest remains highest in China, where 54% of respondents plan a European trip, though that figure is 15% lower than a year ago, continuing a gradual easing over the past two years as the post-pandemic surge normalises. Brazil follows at 45%, broadly unchanged. South Korea is the only market to record an increase, rising from 33% to 36%, though the change is not statistically significant. Intentions have softened in Canada, at 30%, and Australia, at 27%; in Australia, part of the decline may reflect a sample composition now more evenly distributed across income groups. The United States also stands at 27%, while Japan remains the least inclined market at 12%.
Meanwhile, the travellers who do plan to come appear increasingly committed. Across the seven markets surveyed (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea and the United States), 17% of all respondents have already booked their flights, unchanged from last year. Since fewer people are planning a European trip, those with confirmed bookings now represent a larger share of that group: 52% against 42% last autumn. Europe’s autumn audience may be smaller, but a greater proportion of prospective visitors have firm plans in place. The Chinese market illustrates this well, with 37% having already booked their tickets, compared with 33% last year and 26% in autumn 2019. The full findings are available from the European Travel Commission at https://etc-corporate.org/news/while-long-haul-travel-plans-ease-this-autumn-travellers-remain-committed-by-booking-trips-to-europe/.
Cost remains the leading obstacle, although its influence has weakened. Among respondents not planning a long-haul trip, 44% cite high travel costs as the main reason, down five percentage points. Among those travelling long-haul but choosing destinations outside Europe, 30% identify cost as a barrier to visiting the region, down 12 points. In that group, 23% say they prefer another world region and 16% point to limited holiday time. Geopolitical concerns weigh less heavily: only 7% cite the war in Ukraine as a reason for not travelling to Europe, and 6% mention conflict in the Middle East.
Europe is set to welcome many new visitors this autumn, with 53% of prospective travellers coming for the first time. The share is highest among travellers from China, at 61%, and the United States, at 57%. First-time visitors are more likely to choose full package trips, at 52%, while repeat visitors more often organise their journeys independently. Leisure remains the main purpose of travel at 73%, with most visitors planning stays of one to two weeks and the largest group budgeting €100 to €200 per person per day.
Only 34% of travellers plan to visit a single European country; 66% intend to combine two or more, with an average itinerary of 2.7 countries, rising to 3.3 among Australians, who plan the widest trips. Southern and Mediterranean Europe remains the main draw, with 67% planning to visit the region. France is mentioned most often at 52%, ahead of Italy at 35% and Spain at 25%. For travel between countries, air remains most popular, with low-cost airlines mentioned by 45% and full-service carriers by 44%, but rail follows closely: 40% plan to use rail passes and 39% point-to-point tickets.
What stands out is how many travellers see Europe as one place. Some 39% of travellers to Europe, including 43% of first-time visitors, view it as a single destination, an image most strongly held by Japanese travellers, at 68%, and South Korean travellers, at 51%. Strong connectivity between countries and shared logistical frameworks, such as a common currency and visa framework, drive this perception. Responding to the findings, Miguel Sanz, President of the European Travel Commission, noted that though long-haul travel intention may be cooling, Europe’s appeal remains strong, with newcomers and repeat travellers planning to visit in almost equal measure and most wanting to explore several countries in one trip. He added that collaborative work between destinations stands at the heart of Brand Destination Europe, as ease of travel allows visitors to appreciate the unified diversity of the continent.
Whether that ease of travel, and the affordability that still tops travellers’ concerns, holds steady in the coming waves will shape how many of these plans turn into journeys.